[members-discuss] RIPE NCC and the geopolitical situation

All,

the recent discussion about moving the NCC and the relative
political stability of countries in the service region has
caused me to think about the RIPE NCC in the current political
context. THere appears to be an incipient issue here:

1) Problem statement

the current geopolitical situation in the RIPE service region
has, unfortunately, greatly degraded in the recent past. There
are territorial conflicts (Ukraine/Russia), there are outright
civil wars (Syria, Afghanistan) and, perhaps closest to "home",
the cold war is back between "The West" and Russia as well as
Iran (both in the RIPE service region).
The rhetoric in both the EU and NATO (both of which NL is a
member of) is becoming increasingly belligerent and there is an
increasing likelihood of this stance leading to unilateral
sanctions against those seen as "enemies". Since "internet
propaganda", "Russian Trolls", etc are now often taking the blame
for every ill in Europe, I should be surprised if those didn't
also include internet resources. I would not see it without the
realm of the possible, that increasing political/legal pressure
would be brought on the RIPE NCC to deny service and perhaps
revoke resources allocated to these enemies-du-jour.

2) Possible outcomes

- Sanctioned countries might take their ball and go elsewhere
  (another RIR?)

- Sanctioned countries might take their resources and set up
  their own RIR, approved by IANA or, more likely, not.

- They might refuse (or be prohibited from) cooperation with the
  original IANA/RIR/LIR system.

- In a worst-case scenario this could lead to the same resources
  used by "opposing" RIRs and a fracturing of the internet.

- In such a case, it is hard to imagine the ITU (as an UN body)
  *not* taking control of resource management to prevent such a
fracture.

3) Mitigations

- The only one I can think of is relocating the NCC to a country
  - if that exists- which is neutral and does not participate in
    these block fights (Switzerland?, Sweden?).

As a question to the board: does the RIPE NCC have any
contingency plans to mitigate this situation when it occurs?

Kind Regards,
Sascha Luck
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resources