[ipv6-wg] Have we failed as IPv6 Working Group?

On Sat, Oct 05, 2019 at 03:56:18PM -0400, Marc Blanchet wrote:
> Up to now, I have only see an increase of the number of nodes/trafic
> over IPv6, by any metric or monitoring system I’ve seen. The increase
> rate is not as most of us would like to be, but still positive. To me,
> if we see a decrease of usage of IPv6 over some significant period of
> time, then we shall discuss about the failing of IPv6. But we are not
> yet there.

I've observed IPv6 hitting a plateau (even a slight decrease!) in usage
of IPv6 across multiple large networks measured over significant time.

A publicly accessible graphs produced from the AMS-IX platform is
available here: https://stats.ams-ix.net/sflow/ether_type.html
IPv4 vs IPv6 is neatly normalized by presenting the traffic as a
percentage rather than some absolute measure. I'm attempting to collect
information from other platforms as well because I think this type of
graph helps compare apples to apples.

Growth of IPv6 traffic in absolute units is expected, if we consider
IPv6 traffic usage a function of overall Internet traffic usage.
Internet traffic appears to grow steadily.

However, if IPv4 and IPv6 grow at the same rate, my interpretation would
be that IPv4 use is not declining, thus IPv6 isn't growing, and we
should indeed be discussing the current failing of IPv6.

Some may argue that IPv6 traffic doesn't replace IPv4 traffic, that IPv6
traffic is new apps or new demand, but in a Happy Eyeballs / dualstack /
nat64 world I'd consider that somewhat unlikely. Happy to hear other
people's thoughts!

Kind regards,

Job

ps. Before we venture into a tit-for-tat where we trade pictures of
decline (e.g. IXP stats) against pictures of growth (google stats), I'd
like to learn more why we see what we see in the current decline graphs.