[address-policy-wg] 2015-05 New Policy Proposal (Revision of Last /8 Allocation Criteria)

On 20/10/2015 14:06, "address-policy-wg on behalf of Gert Doering"
<address-policy-wg-bounces at ripe.net on behalf of gert at space.net> wrote:

>(As for the impact: I hope the NCC will nicely do the math for us how
>many LIRs we currently have that would be eligible to receive "more space"
>and what their crystall balls have to say on the subsequent run-out date
>;) )

Using the figures provided by RIPE earlier in the month [0] there were
6990 active LIRs with their final /22 on 1st October, of these 4383
(61.3%) signed up after 14th September 2012.

So that's 4383 LIRs that would be able to request a further /22 every 18
months.

>From the above report the allocation rate of v4 addresses is 8.5 /22s per
day, 18 months after this policy gets implemented that might rise by 61.3%
(the percentage of new LIRs with their final /22) to 13.7 /22s per day, it
could then rise to 22.1 /22s per day 18 months after that.

Assuming that the policy gets implemented in January 2016 and the
allocation rate increases as I've calculated above then RIPE would run out
of IPs in May 2019, less than 4 years from now.

Assuming all LIRs who have bothered to get their final /22 could get these
additional /22s every 18 months then RIPE would run out in of v4 addresses
in June 2018, less than 3 years from now.

For these reasons I do not support this proposal.


[0] - 
https://labs.ripe.net/Members/wilhelm/ipv4-in-the-ripe-ncc-service-region-t
hree-years-after-reaching-the-last-8



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