[address-policy-wg] 2013-03 New Draft Document and Impact Analysis Published (No Need - Post-Depletion Reality Adjustment and Clean up)

On Jul 25, 2013, at 6:42 AM, Nick Hilliard <nick at inex.ie> wrote:
> Also they can still serve a useful purpose as the registries of allocated space.

Well, assuming they don't shoot themselves in the head by attempting to use their registries as a weapon against their customers.

> With regard to 2013-03, we know that:
> 
> 1. the RIRs will no longer be the dominant source for injecting liquidity
> into the available addressing pool

Agreed.

> 2. demand for ipv4 address space over time will continue to increase

Demand for IPv4 will increase as long as the price is competitive relative to the alternatives.  Right now, the price of IPv4 is wildly distorted by the regulatory regime imposed by the RIRs so stuff like CGN and IPv6 is (seen to be) too expensive.  At some point, the regulatory regime that is 'injecting liquidity' _IS_ going to be unable to do so, and the price of IPv4 is going to skyrocket with a corresponding decrease in demand as alternatives become more appealing.  The only question is when.

> 3. there will be a market for ipv4 address space.

There already is.

> The ipv4 address market will work if the market stays liquid, but 2013-03
> creates an environment for full deregulation of the addressing market with
> almost no control mechanisms for handling problems

AFAICT, 2013-03 simply says "get out of the way and let the market work." The main concern appears to be that Evil Greedy Speculators will descend upon RIPE like locusts, gobbling up the remaining RIPE IPv4 free pool in a blink of an eye, and not putting that address space into actual use.

I tend to agree that is a risk.  However, as has been pointed out, there is little stopping that now (well, other than penalizing honesty).

Regards,
-drc