[address-policy-wg] 2013-03 New Draft Document and Impact Analysis Published (No Need - Post-Depletion Reality Adjustment and Clean up)

On 25/07/2013 11:51, Randy Bush wrote:
> the issue is that ipv4 is essentially gone

therein lies the problem: ipv4 is not essentially gone, nor do I foresee
that it will be gone in my lifetime.  Nor do I see that the RIR pools will
ever stop garbage collection of ipv4 address space, which means that for
the foreseeable future, they will continue to play a part in ipv4 address
allocation.  Also they can still serve a useful purpose as the registries
of allocated space.

With regard to 2013-03, we know that:

1. the RIRs will no longer be the dominant source for injecting liquidity
into the available addressing pool

2. demand for ipv4 address space over time will continue to increase

3. there will be a market for ipv4 address space.

The ipv4 address market will work if the market stays liquid, but 2013-03
creates an environment for full deregulation of the addressing market with
almost no control mechanisms for handling problems

[There is a 24-month reallocation freeze, but I don't think this is going
to work because it will not affect the reality of real world allocation
transfers.  Consequently, people will flout it, and then we will need to
remove it from the policy mechanism because it's causing the registry
function to break down.]

Liquidity will be generated almost entirely by existing address space
holders releasing existing address space into the market.  So the
interesting question is: just how much slack space is there out there?

Answering this will give us a good idea how much potential future liquidity
there is, and consequently whether full deregulation is likely or not to
run into liquidity constraints, given historical addressing demands over
the last several years.  This will give us a better perspective to decide
on whether 2013-03 is actually a good idea.

Nick