[address-policy-wg] [Ticket#2013020401002158] New on RIPE Labs: 1, 000 /22 Allocated from Last /8

Dear Shane,

>   That's about 6 years, assuming things stay constant.
>       2155 / 365.25 = 5.9
  
Many companies in fact had reserves, while they thinked about future.

I think the most intresting changes we will see during next 12 month. Amount
of requests IPv4 from last /8 can rapidly increase (in 2-5 times). 
 
  --
  Alexey Ivanov
LeaderTelecom 

04.02.2013 18:02 - Shane Kerr написал(а):
 All,

On Friday, 2013-02-01 15:09:58 +0100,
Mirjam Kuehne <mir at ripe.net> wrote:
> We allocated the 1,000th /22 from the last /8. Please read more on
> RIPE Labs:
>
> [1]https://labs.ripe.net/Members/ingrid/1000-slash-22s-allocated-from-last-sla[..]

Just so I understand...

  It took 140 days to allocate 1000 addresses, or about 7.14 address
  per day.

  There are 2^14 /22 in a /8, or 16384.

  At that burn rate, it will take about 2150 days to finish out the
  last /8.
      (16384 - 1000) / 7.14 = 2155

  That's about 6 years, assuming things stay constant.
      2155 / 365.25 = 5.9

Based on Google's numbers, IPv6 has roughly doubled as a percentage of
traffic for the last 3 years... if this continues for the next 6 years,
we'll have about 70% of traffic over IPv6 when the RIPE NCC really,
REALLY runs out of IPv4 in this region. (Of course, if it continues for
7 years then 140% of traffic will be over IPv6.) ;)

It looks like there's likely to be a window of time where new entrants
won't be able to get any IPv4 space, and a significant percentage of
users will still be IPv4-only.

Should we tweak the policy now to make it harder to get IPv4 address
space, or wait a few years? It seems slightly unfair to future entrants,
but the whole IPv4 allocation model has always vastly favored early
entrants, so perhaps we shouldn't worry about it yet.

Cheers,

--
Shane
 
 


[1] https://labs.ripe.net/Members/ingrid/1000-slash-22s-allocated-from-last-slash-8
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