<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"/></head><body style="font-family:Geneva,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">Dear Shane,<br />
<br />
> That's about 6 years, assuming things stay constant.<br />
> 2155 / 365.25 = 5.9<br />
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Many companies in fact had reserves, while they thinked about future.<br />
<br />
I think the most intresting changes we will see during next 12 month. Amount of requests IPv4 from last /8 can rapidly increase (in 2-5 times). <br />
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Alexey Ivanov<br />
LeaderTelecom </div>
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04.02.2013 18:02 - Shane Kerr написал(а):<br />
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All,<br />
<br />
On Friday, 2013-02-01 15:09:58 +0100,<br />
Mirjam Kuehne <mir@ripe.net> wrote:<br />
> We allocated the 1,000th /22 from the last /8. Please read more on<br />
> RIPE Labs:<br />
><br />
> <a href="https://labs.ripe.net/Members/ingrid/1000-slash-22s-allocated-from-last-slash-8" target="_blank" title="https://labs.ripe.net/Members/ingrid/1000-slash-22s-allocated-from-last-slash-8">https://labs.ripe.net/Members/ingrid/1000-slash-22s-allocated-from-last-sla[..]</a><br />
<br />
Just so I understand...<br />
<br />
It took 140 days to allocate 1000 addresses, or about 7.14 address<br />
per day.<br />
<br />
There are 2^14 /22 in a /8, or 16384.<br />
<br />
At that burn rate, it will take about 2150 days to finish out the<br />
last /8.<br />
(16384 - 1000) / 7.14 = 2155<br />
<br />
That's about 6 years, assuming things stay constant.<br />
2155 / 365.25 = 5.9<br />
<br />
Based on Google's numbers, IPv6 has roughly doubled as a percentage of<br />
traffic for the last 3 years... if this continues for the next 6 years,<br />
we'll have about 70% of traffic over IPv6 when the RIPE NCC really,<br />
REALLY runs out of IPv4 in this region. (Of course, if it continues for<br />
7 years then 140% of traffic will be over IPv6.) ;)<br />
<br />
It looks like there's likely to be a window of time where new entrants<br />
won't be able to get any IPv4 space, and a significant percentage of<br />
users will still be IPv4-only.<br />
<br />
Should we tweak the policy now to make it harder to get IPv4 address<br />
space, or wait a few years? It seems slightly unfair to future entrants,<br />
but the whole IPv4 allocation model has always vastly favored early<br />
entrants, so perhaps we shouldn't worry about it yet.<br />
<br />
Cheers,<br />
<br />
--<br />
Shane<br />
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