[members-discuss] Interesting IP count

Hi Colleuages:

Today I come across an very interesting article which I'd like to
share with your guys and see what your guys think about it.

http://ilia.ws/archives/236-ISP-Popularity-by-Domain-Count.html

If what said in the article was true(which it should be as all the
data from the article should be public data), if all the cable network
start to use NAT, just in sense of domains, we might have IP supply
for few more decades.

And it would be very interesting if someone from Ripe NCC can share
with us what is the most IP consuming business in the planet.

In which, is that service can use NAT in sometime future?

I talked to an UK telecom provider one day in a ripe lunch, he told me
that their network is already partly using NAT(sorry I didn't remember
his name, but I am sure he is on this mailing list), and he only need
a /21 for entire network.

And another thing was, I heard from one of my friend in the Apanic
meeting, that someone is selling entire A class there for 10 USD/ IP.

We don't know if there is already some successful story there
regarding IP sales. But seems to me, based on what happened on Asian
now, at least in China, as I heard from many of my colleagues there,
there was no real shortage there at this time.

No body goes bankrupt because of no IPs left.

So that raise an interesting point, since 60% of the world domain is
in fact wasted, is that the same story with IP usage. After all, we
allocated almost half of the pool before RIR even exists.

The current way of IP distributing results a very noneffective way of
"past business" IP usage as well(e.g. someone changed their business
from cable business to an enterprise business, of course that guy will
not return Ripe NCC his additional free 2 M IPs).

So when their is a real market for IPv4, and all the latency space
come to sale, will we last much much longer than everybody expected?

We our-self have few dozen of enterprise customers, and they are
already paying 3-5 USD/ month /IP for years, as asking them to
re-program their software and re-provision their business into IPv6,
the cost will be enormous for them, and one more thing is, most
software writers don't really like IPv6, as it is hard to remember and
hard to type(it will be a whole lot easier if you just remember the IP
and type it every time you have to do so, rather than copy paste, we
all know the reason). So, even IP price eventually raise to 30USD even
50USD, it is still very hard for them to switch it over to IPv6 as
long as they don't have IPv6-only client, because they are paying this
amount of money for IP per year anyway.

Another thing is, one thing aside from RIR meetings and ISP meetings,
we didn't really hear a lot about IPv6. IPv6 come into developer is
still something new and interesting, and one guy I talked in the IPv6
workshop in the Ripe64, a software developer for an Austria local
company, who don't even know that IPv6 has been around for almost a
decades.

Since Ripe is almost finish it's public pools, my last question is,
will one day all the wasted IP address being effectively picked up
because of existing marketplace, and that market place will last us
another 3 decades before we really going to IPv6 ear?

Go Ipv6
Pro
Last forever(this reason doesn't really come into play because it this
can be a reason convince enterprise customer then it should be done 10
years ago.).
unlimited amount of address space.(same as above)
cost reasons.
con:
need new router new config new practice and testing almost every part
of the business(from software to hardware).
very hard to remember and write.
(welcome to add more on this list)

IPv4
pro
you know how it works
it works for all of our business life.
it is easy to remember
con
cost reasons.

But let's look at how much we are paying Ripe NCC now, for large ones,
they are paying more coffee in the office than they are paying Ripe
thing. So does that really hurts them when they pay 20USD per IP, look
at their margin and their current costs structure, I would say for
most business, it should be fine.

If there is enough supply in the market for next decades, and keep the
price well below 50 USD per IP, I believe 99% of business would accept
this price and go on with their life.

History already tell us most of us don't look too far to the
future(otherwise we are already there).

Hope my a bit of 2 cents can get more interesting thoughts come around.

-- 
--
Kind regards.
Lu

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