[ipv6-wg] IPv4 reaches a milestone: 365 days left

There are a lot of details that are folded into modelling of real world systems, but ultimately they are just models and reality often has its own trajectory. 

It is useful to bear in mind that less that 1% of all individual address allocations across the world consume 50% of IPv4 addresses. And in recent times less than 20 providers have consumed about 25% of all IPv4 addresses. In other words the actions of a very small number of very large scale providers has a much greater impact on address consumption than the actions of a large number of smaller providers. While statistical models are good when looking at anticipated behaviour of large populations, they are pretty hopeless when looking at the behaviour of much smaller populations. Individuals do not behave in good statistical order! 

Given that the entire address consumption model is so heavily influenced by the actions of a few, it could be that the address pool is exhausted in the coming weeks. It is also possible that the remaining pool of addresses will last for a further 18 months. All the models can do is that given a particular perspective on the consumption behaviour of the recent past, the model attempts to provide a projection into the future.

Frankly, anyone who thinks that the time to deploy IPv6 is still some months or even years away is playing a rather silly game. The topic of interest is not really about various models of exhaustion - the topic of concern to all of us is why out of all the ISPs in the region, the number who have integrated IPv6 into all their services is still frighteningly small.

Geoff

On 14/07/2010, at 11:41 PM, Ahmed Abu-Abed wrote:

> Hi Kristoff,
> 
> What I have learned is exponential growth, plus better forecasts of the consumption rate as the address pool shrinks in size, resulted in bringing the depletion date forecast closer.
> 
> As for the final rush, RIRs normally require proper forecasts before issuing the v4 addresses so I am not sure if, and how, a rush can happen.
> 
> Best wsihes,
> -Ahmed
> 
> --------------------------------------------------
> From: "Kristoff Bonne" <kristoff at belbone.net>
> Sent: Wednesday, July 14, 2010 12:32 PM
> To: <ipv6-wg at ripe.net>
> Subject: Re: [ipv6-wg] IPv4 reaches a milestone: 365 days left
> 
>> Hi Ahmed,
>> 
>> 
>> I noticed that a number of websites that gather information about the
>> IPv4 depletion seams to indicate quite an increase in ipv4 consumation-rate.
>> 
>> But sofar I have not found any information on the reason for this.
>> 
>> 
>> Do you have any ideas on this?
>> 
>> Just the economy taking steam again? Normal groth in a number of big
>> markets (especially China)?
>> Or something else? Has the "big final rush" started?
>> 
>> Or both?
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> Cheerio! Kr. Bonne.
>> 
>> Op 14-07-10 09:50, Ahmed Abu-Abed schreef:
>>> Greetings,
>>> 
>>> Today the IPv4 counters show there is 1 year left for IANA IPv4
>>> depletion date or X-Day, more details on the IPv6 Forum website.
>>> 
>>> Note that this is a conservative estimate as a few months ago the
>>> prediction was October 2011. A less conservative estimate taking into
>>> consideration exponential growth of IPv4 demand on a regional level
>>> shows April 2011 for X-Day, more at http://ipv4depletion.com/
>>> 
>>> Best wishes,
>>> -Ahmed
>>> 
>>> P.S. Download the depletion counter gadgets for Win, Mac and iPhone
>>> from http://inetcore.com/project/ipv4ec/index_en.html
>> 
>> 
>