[address-policy-wg] 2015-05 Discussion Period extended until 13 May 2016 (Last /8 Allocation Criteria Revision)

My apologies to all on the list - this will be my last email about this version of 2015-05.

> On 11 May 2016, at 23:21 , Radu-Adrian FEURDEAN <ripe-wgs at radu-adrian.feurdean.net> wrote:
> 
> On Wed, May 11, 2016, at 21:53, Remco van Mook wrote:
>> OK, have it your way. Let's look at some numbers:
>> 
>> Available in 185/8 right now: ~ 6,950 /22s (1)
>> Available outside 185/8 right now: ~ 8,180 /22s (1)
> 
> I'm OK with that.
> 
>> New LIRs since January 2013: ~4,600 (2,3)
>> Budgeted membership growth for the rest of 2016: ~ 1,500 (2)
>> 
>> Before 2016 is out, around 4,000 existing LIRs will have qualified under
>> the proposed policy to get another allocation.
>> Half the 'outside 185' pool will be gone by the end of this year.
> 
> At the same time, 4472 LIRs do not have any IPv4 space. Is it possible
> to know how many of them never requested it, 3.5 years after (or more
> likely 2 years after all the restrictions have been lifted) ?
> Do you really think all eligible LIRs will make the request within 6
> months ?
> 

I don't know about the 4,472, but let's say 1,000 of them will, at some point.

What  has been claimed by a multitude of proponents of this proposal is that apparently a single /22 is woefully inadequate to run your business on. I don't even disagree.
All of those 4,000 have never received more than a single /22. Given the option to get more, following the rationale of the proposers, I would be very surprised if they didn't jump at that opportunity.

The same goes for every new LIR - and they would even be able to include the second /22 in their business planning, so that's another 4,000.

Quite a few LIRs who signed up during the 'run out fairly' period (2011-2012) also don't have a /20 of IPv4 address space, I don't have a number but let's put that at another 500.

Finally, according to the proposed policy LIRs can come back every 18 months - so by mid 2018 the first group of 4,000 comes back again.

That puts the total number of requests for additional /22s by mid 2018 at 13,500. That's 150% of the space you wanted to make available.

There won't be space for newcomers in there.

Remco

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