[address-policy-wg] 2015-05 Discussion Period extended until 13 May 2016 (Last /8 Allocation Criteria Revision)

On 15 Apr 2016, at 14:33, Adrian Pitulac <adrian at idsys.ro> wrote:
> 
> I'm talking about the statistics presented even at RIPE 71 in Bucharest last year, where IPv6 capability in US grew 5% between 05.2015 and 11.2015.

It depends on your view. The Akamai stats at http://www.worldipv6launch.org/measurements/ suggest 2% increase over the same period, and linear growth that has flattened out a little.

I suspect you mean slide 37 of https://ripe71.ripe.net/wp-content/uploads/presentations/56-RIPE71-bucharest-v6.pdf, which shows linear/slowing growth over that period, from a high starting point. I don’t think that slide supports your argument at all, and in any event any significant deployment takes time, you can’t just magic it up when an event happens.

And regardless of 2% or 5%, that growth is a mix of residential operators like Comcast, who were deploying anyway during that period, and the mobile operators (T-Mobile, ATT, VeriZon, etc), who were *already* going v6-only to the handsets with NAT64/464XLAT for legacy v4. The US is now at around 25% overall, according to Google, or 17% according to Akamai. Interesting how much those numbers vary.

> Coming back to the policy discussion, I don't see why keeping 185/8 for new entrants wouldn't be a viable solution. It's the exact thing which was intended when the last /8 policy was created.

As others have said, everyone wants to grow. If you’re starting a new venture v6 should be at the heart of what you’re doing.

Tim

> On 15/04/16 12:21, Tim Chown wrote:
>>> On 15 Apr 2016, at 10:02, Adrian Pitulac <adrian at idsys.ro> wrote:
>>> 
>>> but from statistics and from my point of view, ARIN depletion of pools, resulted directly in IPV6 growth.
>> Well, no, not if you look at https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html, which shows steady IPv6 growth towards Google services (approaching 11% now).
>> 
>> Similarly wrt active IPv6 routes - http://bgp.potaroo.net/v6/as2.0/index.html
>> 
>> What statistics are you referring to?
>> 
>> The policy in the RIPE region means that effectively we’ll “never” run out, but that any new LIR can get a /22 to support public-facing services and some amount of CGNAT. In the ARIN region, they’re on the very last fumes of v4 address space as they had no such policy.
>> 
>>> Everyone talks about why RIPE IPv6 hasn't exploded. I think the reason is IPv4 pools still available. If market will be constrained by lack of IPv4 pools then IPv6 will explode.
>> The smart people are already well into their deployment programmes. But those take time. Comcast were one of the the first, and have benefitted from that. In the UK, Sky’s rollout has resumed, but has been a long-term project where, I believe, they decided that investing in IPv6 was much smarter than investing in bigger CGNATs.
>> 
>>> Also you should take into consideration that in the last 2 years, LIR number growth has been also due to large LIR's selling their pools and this generated a lot of the new LIR's to appear.
>>> I don't think we would see the same LIR number growth in the next 2 years. So we should plan accordingly and think about helping LIR's when needed.
>> The RIPE NCC has done a great job in putting out information for several years, and encouraging adoption since at least 2011 - https://www.ripe.net/publications/ipv6-info-centre - so the help on IPv6 has been there for the taking...
>> 
>> Tim
>> 
>>> With regards,
>>> Adrian Pitulac
>>> 
>>> 
>>> On 15/04/16 11:41, Gert Doering wrote:
>>>> Hi,
>>>> 
>>>> On Thu, Apr 14, 2016 at 05:23:11PM +0100, Aled Morris wrote:
>>>>> The other objection (Jim) seems to be "we should be all-out promoting IPv6"
>>>>> which I think is a laudable goal but unfortunately when used against
>>>>> proposals like this one means that more recent LIRs are disadvantaged
>>>>> against established companies with large pools of IPv4 to fall back on.  It
>>>>> simply isn't possible, today, to build an ISP on an IPv6-only proposition.
>>>> Please do not forget the fact that small LIRs are not *disadvantaged*
>>>> by this policy, but actually *advantaged*.
>>>> 
>>>> If we didn't have this policy, but just ran out like ARIN did, small
>>>> startup LIRs today would not be able to get *anything*.  Now they can
>>>> get a /22.  Is that enough?  No.  Can we fix it, without taking away
>>>> space that *other* small LIRs might want to have, in a few years time?
>>>> 
>>>> Gert Doering
>>>>         -- APWG chair
>>> 
>>> 
> 
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