[address-policy-wg] 2015-05 New Policy Proposal (Revision of Last /8 Allocation Criteria)

Hi David,

* David Monosov <davidm at futureinquestion.net>

> The last /8 allocation criteria is there to ensure an orderly
> transition is possible for as long as possible, and the fact we now
> expect it to last longer than originally anticipated is further
> demonstration of its efficacy.

I'm not really certain if we can expect it to last longer than
originally anticipated, even. I suppose it depends on what one
anticipated in the first place. I anticipated (or hoped, rather) for a
duration of about 10 years.

The best analysis of its remaining lifetime that I'm aware of is the
recently published RIPE Labs article¹ which suggests a remaining
lifetime of approx. ~5½ years (and this includes future piecemeal
allocations from IANA and expected returns from the membership).

[1] https://labs.ripe.net/Members/wilhelm/ipv4-in-the-ripe-ncc-service-region-three-years-after-reaching-the-last-8

If accurate, that would mean the total lifetime of the somewhat
misleadingly named «last /8» policy would end up being ~8½ years. 1½
years less than the 10 I had originally hoped for.

There is no doubt that 2015-05 would reduce the remaining life
expectancy of the «last /8» policy even further. Considering that the
"last /8" is already expected to last for a shorter time than what I
had hoped for, I cannot support 2015-05.

Tore