[address-policy-wg] 2013-03 New Draft Document and Impact Analysis Published (No Need - Post-Depletion Reality Adjustment and Clean up)

* Nick Hilliard

> The ipv4 address market will work if the market stays liquid, but 2013-03
> creates an environment for full deregulation of the addressing market with
> almost no control mechanisms for handling problems

Hi Nick,

I'd like to know:

- What kind of problems are you foreseeing?
- What kind of control mechanisms exist in today's policy, that are
removed by 2013-03, will forestall these problems?

> [There is a 24-month reallocation freeze, but I don't think this is going
> to work because it will not affect the reality of real world allocation
> transfers.  Consequently, people will flout it, and then we will need to
> remove it from the policy mechanism because it's causing the registry
> function to break down.]

s/24-month reallocation freeze/requirement to demonstrate need/

Does this argument work equally well? If no, why not?

> Liquidity will be generated almost entirely by existing address space
> holders releasing existing address space into the market.  So the
> interesting question is: just how much slack space is there out there?

Probably impossible to answer accurately. The best indication I could
come up with is to 1) compare pre-depletion allocation rates with
post-depletion transfer rates, making the assumption that the actual
demand has at least not decreased, and 2) compare supply with demand at
the RIPE NCC's listing site.

Today's numbers:

Pre-depletion IPv4 RIR->LIR allocation stats (20110914-20120725):
- allocations: 1980
- addresses:   36052992

Post-depletion IPv4 LIR->LIR allocation transfer stats (20120914-20130725):
- transfers: 70 (3.54% of pre-depletion)
- addresses: 1189888 (3.30% of pre-depletion)

RIPE NCC IPv4 Transfer Listing Service stats:
- requested: 15043584
- available: 225280 (1.50% of requested)

Tore