[address-policy-wg] The final /8 policy proposals, part 3

> It has been quiet for some time now, so I think we should 
> start to discuss the final /8 proposals again.

Perhaps we could do better than just repeat the previous discussion.

First of all, let's set the context. If we have a policy for the 
final /8 then this policy will take effect when IANA announces that
the global supply of IPv4 addresses has run out. That's why the
final /8 is final. At that time there will be a lot of media coverage
of IANA's announcement and greater awareness that the RIRs only have
a limited regional supply of IPv4 addresses left.

At that point in time, RIPE will be able to project its own runout
of IPv4, based on past allocation history and its policies. I wonder
what that runout date would be? How much IPv4 inventory is RIPE likely
to have when it gets a new /8 allocation, and what is the run-rate for
IPv4 allocations per month?

What period of time are we talking about?

This is important, because if the period of time is short enough, we
could ask all LIRs to tell RIPE what their IP address requirements
are month by month. Then RIPE can see how much the inventory is 
oversubscribed, and allocate the entire inventory at one time, dividing
it up so that everyone runs out at the same time.

Why do this? So that we help ISPs who are providing IPv6 Internet access
to get market penetration for their services by creating yet another 
media event. A scheme like a) allocate one fixed block size, or b)
starve
everyone equally, will result in everyone running out at different
times.
This makes it harder to get the attention of the market and sell IPv6
services in sufficient volume.

The policy to implement this would call for RIPE to halt all IPv4
allocations
when IANA issues the final /8, analyze the current situation, publish a
runout
date and monthly run-rate for the RIPE region, and then call for
applications.
Once the applications are in, RIPE could publish the amounts requested
and
LIR identity for each allocation, propose an actual set of allocations
that 
would result in all those RIRs running out at the same time, then call
an
extraordinary RIPE meeting to vote on what to do with the IPv4
inventory.

Let's not try to decide exactly what to do today, when we lack
information.
Instead, let's push this EXTRAORDINARY decision making into the future
where
it belongs, at the time when the EXTRAORDINARY event takes place.

--Michael Dillon