[address-policy-wg] [ncc-co at ripe.net] IPv4 Address Space

[Apologies for duplicate mailings]

Dear Colleagues,

There have been press articles posted over the past year that make 
statements about the remaining pool of IPv4 address space. A recent article 
states there is a shortage and that Internet Protocol Numbers will run out 
some time in the year 2005.

The Regional Internet Registries (RIRs) do not themselves make predictions 
about when the remaining IPv4 address space will be depleted. They do, 
however, report on the rates of RIR allocation of IPv4 address space and on 
the state of the remaining pool of IPv4 address space.

The information provided in these RIR reports makes it apparent that many 
of the recent claims regarding IPv4 address space shortage are speculative 
and are not based on authoritative, publicly available statistics.

IPv4 Address Space: Current Statistics
============================
The global pool of IPv4 addresses is administered by the Internet Assigned 
Numbers Authority (IANA), which allocates address blocks to Regional 
Internet Registries (RIRs) as they are required. The IPv4 allocation unit 
in this case is the "/8 block", equivalent to approximately 16 million 
addresses. It should be noted that as of 30 June 2003 the global pool of 
IPv4 address space contained 91 of these blocks for this purpose.

The RIRs report on statistics regarding IPv4 allocation on their respective 
web sites and present a "Joint Statistics" report at each of the RIR 
meetings and at other Internet industry meetings several times yearly. This 
information is publicly available and provides the most up-to-date 
statistics on rates of IPv4 allocation. The most recent presentation on 
this subject can be found at:

http://www.ripe.net/rs/statistics/resource-status-200310.pdf

This report states that the RIRs have collectively allocated 19.59 /8 
equivalents in the four and a half years between January 1999 and June 
2003. It also identifies that there are 91 /8 equivalents held by the IANA 
in reserve for future allocation by the RIRs.

Based on today's total global allocation rate of approximately 4.25 blocks 
per year in 2002, or 5.5 blocks in 2001, and the remaining pool of 91 
blocks held by IANA, it is unrealistic to assume that there is an imminent 
shortage in the IPv4 address space. Even allowing for a dramatic increase 
in address consumption rates, it is highly probable that IPv4 address space 
will last well beyond the two years predicted by some.

IPv4 Address Space: Allocated Globally According to Regional Needs
==================================================
The RIRs are not-for-profit membership organisations dedicated to providing 
neutral and fair Internet resource distribution to their members, while 
ensuring the conservation and aggregation of IPv4 address space. The IANA 
policies for allocation of IPv4 address blocks to the RIRs are applied 
fairly and are based purely on the documented need for address space.

When IPv4 address space finally "runs out" this will occur at the global 
level, leaving each region with a relatively small pool of addresses 
remaining to be allocated. It has been suggested that Asia will experience 
an IPv4 address shortage before other regions. This is simply not true. 
This is because addresses are distributed in a co-ordinated fashion from a 
single global pool, and there is no system whereby that pool is exclusively 
divided among, or pre-allocated to, different countries or regions. Through 
the current system of address administration, IP addresses are allocated 
according to immediate need wherever that need is demonstrated and it is 
simply not possible for isolated "shortages" to exist.

As has been done in the past, the RIRs will continue to report regularly on 
the registration and allocation rates of Internet Protocol Numbers, and 
will work closely with the IANA to ensure the efficient management of the 
remaining IPv4 address space.

RIR Statistics:
==========
APNIC 	http://www.apnic.net/info/reports/index.html
ARIN 		http://www.arin.net/statistics/index.html
LACNIC	http://www.lacnic.net/en/est.html
RIPE NCC	http://www.ripe.net/ripencc/mem-services/registration/statistics/

Raw Data/Historical RIR Allocations:
==========================
http://www.aso.icann.org/stats/index.html
http://www.iana.org/assignments/ipv4-address-space

The Internet Number Resource Status Report, prepared jointly by the four 
RIRs, provides up-to-date statistics on rates of IPv4 allocation. This 
presentation is available at:
http://www.ripe.net/rs/statistics/resource-status-200310.pdf


Cheers,

Paul Rendek
Head of Member Services and Communications
RIPE NCC


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